Can Qualitative Market Research Reveal If Your New Food Concept Will Survive Singapore's Crowded Market?
In the past year, Singapore’s Food and Beverage scene saw the highest number of business closures in nearly two decades, with over 3,000 outlets shutting their doors. Yet, in that same period, more than 3,700 new establishments opened. This is the paradox of Singapore’s food paradise. It is a market of immense opportunity and brutal attrition. For anyone launching a new food concept, the core business tension is clear. The challenge is not a lack of demand, but a hyper-saturation of supply. Success requires more than a good product. It requires a deep, almost intuitive, fit with the consumer's life. How do you launch a concept that becomes an indispensable part of a diner's routine, rather than just another fleeting option in a sea of choices? We believe the answer lies beyond spreadsheets and trend reports. It is found in the human story. This post will explore how to de-risk a new food concept by asking better questions and listening more deeply to the unspoken needs of the Singaporean diner.
What We're Seeing
What fascinates us is the landscape in which these new concepts must survive. It is a market defined by deep-rooted habits, intense competition, and a government-led push for innovation. To succeed, one must first understand the ground reality.
Singaporean households spend a significant portion of their budget on food, about 20.0% according to the latest data. Critically, the majority of that spending, 67.9%, goes towards "food and beverage serving services." This is not just a statistic; it is a cultural truth. Dining out is woven into the fabric of daily life, from a quick breakfast at a kopitiam to a family meal at a hawker centre. This behaviour is so ingrained that it is celebrated in shows like Makan Kakis, which explore the island’s rich and diverse culinary traditions. While this signals a large, active market, it also means consumers have highly established routines. A new concept is not entering a vacuum. It is attempting to displace a beloved, time-tested habit.
This deep-rooted food culture creates an unforgiving market. The constant churn of openings and closings paints a picture of a revolving door of hope and failure. While total F&B sales reached an estimated $1.0 billion in a recent month, according to SingStat, this figure masks the intense pressure on individual businesses. As documented in CNA Insider's documentary, many operators are battling rising rental costs, manpower shortages, and overwhelming competition. The high number of new openings suggests a market driven by passion, but the record closures reveal a reality checked by harsh operational economics. In this environment, a concept's initial appeal is less important than its ability to build lasting loyalty and command a price point that sustains the business.
Against this backdrop of fierce competition, there is a strong push for innovation. Singapore imports over 90% of its food, making food security a national priority. The government’s "30 by 30" goal aims to build the capability to produce 30% of our nutritional needs locally by 2030. This strategic vision, detailed by the Singapore Food Agency, is driving investment in everything from vertical farms to alternative proteins. This creates fertile ground for novel food concepts. However, innovation alone is not enough. The recent struggles of cloud kitchens, which boomed during the pandemic but are now facing a steep drop in demand, serve as a cautionary tale. A new model, no matter how innovative, must solve a real and enduring human problem to succeed.
The Questions We Believe Are Worth Asking
The data tells us what is happening. To understand why, we need to ask better questions. We need to shift the focus from the product to the person.
For the End-User (The Diner):
Instead of asking, "Do you like the taste?" we believe it is more powerful to ask, "What job is this meal doing for you right now? Is it a quick refuel between meetings, a reward at the end of a long day, or a choice that reflects your personal values?"
Rather than, "How often would you buy this?" we explore, "Where does this fit into the 'map' of your weekly meals? Is it replacing your usual chicken rice, your Friday night pizza, or is it a new category altogether?"
We seek to uncover the "unspoken compromise" people make with their current food options that a new concept could solve.
For the Business Owner (The Innovator):
"Are we asking our customers to build a completely new habit, or are we slotting into an existing one and making it better?"
"What is the emotional aftertaste of our experience? Do customers leave feeling satisfied, virtuous, indulgent, or simply full?"
"Beyond the food itself, what is the story we are telling? Is it one of heritage and authenticity, of cutting-edge innovation, or of simple, reliable comfort?"
How We Uncover the Answers
Method Selection: Capturing Context and Conversation
Our work involves choosing the right tools to get to the human truth. For food concept testing, we often find a combination of methods works best.
Mobile Qualitative Diaries: Before we even speak to anyone, we often ask participants to keep a simple digital diary of their meals for a week. Using their phones, they snap photos of what they eat, where they are, and who they are with, adding a short note about why they chose it. This captures real behaviour in its natural context, free from the biases of memory. It reveals the powerful role of mood, time pressure, and environment in food decisions.
Triad In-Depth Interviews: For concepts designed to be shared, we find that speaking to small, pre-existing groups of friends or colleagues is incredibly powerful. Unlike a focus group of strangers, this format allows us to observe real social dynamics. We can see how decisions are negotiated and how social status influences choice. It is the difference between asking about a party and actually being at the party.
Participant Targeting: Beyond Demographics to Mindsets
Finding the right people is everything. We move beyond simple demographics to recruit based on behaviours and mindsets that directly impact food choices.
The Hawker Devotee: This person values tradition, authenticity, and a strong price-value equation. They are skeptical of "gimmicks" and are the gatekeepers of cultural legitimacy. Their decisions are rooted in the cultural importance of hawker food.
The Conscious Connoisseur: This person seeks novelty and is driven by sustainability and health narratives. They are early adopters who see food as a form of self-expression. They are the target audience for alternative proteins and unique dining experiences.
The Time-Pressed Pragmatist: This is the ultimate rational decision-maker. Their choices are governed by convenience, speed, and accessibility. They were the core users of food delivery and ready-to-eat meals. They represent the silent majority whose daily habits determine a concept's success.
Uncovering Insights: The Art of Listening
Our work is about creating a space for honest conversation. We listen for the hesitations, the contradictions, and the stories behind the statements. An insight is rarely the first thing someone says. It is the 'why' that emerges after careful, empathetic probing. It is about understanding the difference between what people say they want and what their behaviour reveals they truly need.
Actionable Qualitative Research Tools
To make this thinking more concrete, we have designed a few conceptual tools. These are not final products, but frameworks to help you and your team think more qualitatively about your food concept.
Tool 1: The 'Meal-Time Mission' Matrix This tool helps map a concept against core consumer need states.
The Meal-Time Mission Matrix
Map your concept's primary role in a consumer's life.
| Need State | Consumer's Question | Your Concept's Answer |
|---|---|---|
| Functional Fuel | "What's fast, easy, and will get me through the next few hours?" | [Input your concept's value proposition here] |
| Social Connection | "Where can we go to catch up and share an experience?" | [Input your concept's value proposition here] |
| Comfort & Reward | "I've had a long day. What will make me feel good?" | [Input your concept's value proposition here] |
| Identity Expression | "What choice reflects my values (healthy, sustainable, adventurous)?" | [Input your concept's value proposition here] |
Tool 2: The 'Sensory Storyboard' Projective Technique This tool is designed to uncover emotional and atmospheric expectations.
The Sensory Storyboard
A projective exercise to uncover the ideal experience.
SOUND
What does your ideal experience sound like? (e.g., lively chatter, calming music, sizzling sounds)
SIGHT
What does it look like? (e.g., bright & modern, cozy & rustic, clean & minimalist)
FEELING
How do you want to feel? (e.g., energized, relaxed, adventurous, comforted)
COMPANY
Who are you with? (e.g., alone, with a partner, family, colleagues)
Frameworks like these are powerful starting points. Their true value is realized when they are populated with the rich, messy, and wonderful details that only emerge from real human conversation.
Conclusion
In Singapore's dynamic but difficult food market, a successful concept is one that is built with empathy. Understanding the functional job, emotional role, and social context of your food is not a 'nice to have'. It is the most critical ingredient for building a resilient brand that people will not just try, but adopt into their lives.
Launching a new food concept is more than a business plan; it is about becoming part of someone's life. If you are asking these questions, we should have a conversation about finding the answers together. You can also learn more about our market research in Singapore on Assembled. You can also write to our Research Lead, Felicia at felicia@assembled.sg or give us a call at +65 8118 1048.
