Mobile Ethnography Can Reveal the Human Cost of Singapore's Flavour Wars
We walked past a boarded-up shopfront in a mall yesterday - one that was a bustling bubble tea joint just six months ago. Today, it’s just plywood and a "For Lease" sign. It got us thinking. In 2024 alone, Singapore saw over 3,000 F&B outlets close their doors. That is a staggering number for a little red dot. It feels like every week we’re reading a eulogy for a beloved hawker stall or a trendy cafe on social media.
But here’s the tension: while the shutters are coming down on local heroes, the "Coming Soon" hoardings for international giants are going up. Mister Donut, Tim Hortons, Shake Shack - they are all here, and they are expanding. This isn't just a business cycle; it’s a battle for the Singaporean soul (and stomach). Our work involves digging beneath these headlines. We believe the real story isn't in the P&L statements, but in the human struggle between heritage and hype.
What We're Seeing
The numbers paint a chaotic picture. According to recent data, while the sector is growing, the volatility is unprecedented. We are seeing a "churn and burn" effect where new entrants flood the market, masking the high exit rates. It’s a brutal ecosystem where survival often hinges on deep pockets rather than just good food. As noted in a recent discussion on business support, the market size in Singapore is painfully limited, yet 90% of F&B businesses are micro-enterprises fighting for the same small pool of diners. Watch: The Harsh Truth about Business Support in Singapore.
It’s not just about who has the best burger; it’s about "cultural soft power." We are seeing a massive influx of brands riding the waves of pop culture - first it was the Japanese wave, now it's the Chinese and Korean food trends dominating our malls. This shift is reshaping consumer expectations, training diners to chase the "next new thing" rather than build loyalty. Statistics from SingStat’s Retail Sales Index confirm that while overall F&B sales fluctuate, the pressure on traditional operators is immense as they compete with these shiny, venture-backed foreign concepts. Watch: Is it only rent affecting F&B owners?.
Then there is the cost reality. It is easy to blame the landlords - and yes, rent is high - but the real killer is often manpower. Some operators report that labor costs can hit 55% of sales, a figure that makes profitability a pipe dream for many. We see young hawkers struggling to preserve heritage recipes while battling these modern economic realities, often without the "economies of scale" that international chains enjoy. The government’s Food Services Industry Transformation Map aims to help through automation, but machines can’t replace the "human touch" of a hawker uncle. Watch: Is Singapore Hawker Culture Dying?.
The Questions We Believe Are Worth Asking
We need to stop asking "How do we get more footfall?" and start asking questions that cut to the human experience.
For the Heritage Hawker: "Is my grandmother’s recipe enough to survive a TikTok trend, or do I need to sell an 'experience' just to be seen?"
For the Global Franchisee: "How do we build genuine loyalty in a nation of diners who are 'asset rich but cash poor' and culturally conditioned to be fickle?"
For the Policy Maker: "If manpower constraints are permanent, are we designing a food culture that inevitably excludes the small, independent human operator?"
How We Uncover the Answers: The Qualitative Approach
To answer these, we can't just run a survey. We need to be in the kitchen and at the table.
Method Selection: Mobile Ethnography & In-Context Immersion We recommend Mobile Ethnography. We ask participants (diners) to document their "decision journey" via video diaries over two weeks—capturing the exact moment they choose a chain over a hawker. Why that specific craving? Was it a promo code? A queue they saw? We also propose In-Context Immersion, where our researchers shadow F&B operators for a shift. We want to feel the heat of the wok and the stress of the lunch rush to understand the operational friction points that data misses.
Participant Targeting: Beyond Demographics Forget "Males, 25-40." We need to talk to:
The Trend-Hopping Gen Z: Queues for 45 minutes for a donut but complains a $5 Bak Chor Mee is "expensive." What drives this value perception?
The Nostalgic Boomer: Feels alienated by QR code ordering and English-only menus at hip cafes.
The Exhausted Hawker: The second-generation owner who is thinking of throwing in the towel.
Uncovering Insights Our process is messy. We look for the contradictions. The diner who says they "support local" but has eaten at McDonald's three times this week. We listen for the silence—the frustration of a business owner who can't find staff despite government grants and support schemes. That’s where the truth hides.
Actionable Tools
We don’t just leave you with a report. Here are three conceptual tools to help you rethink your strategy right now.
1. The Flavour-Fatigue Matrix Use this to map where your brand sits in the consumer's mind: are you a 'novelty' that will fade, or a 'staple' that risks irrelevance?
The Flavour-Fatigue Matrix
Y-Axis: Cultural Stickiness (Trend vs. Tradition)
X-Axis: Operational Resilience (High Manpower vs. Automated)
High Trend, Low Resilience
(e.g., Cronuts, Cheese Tea)
Danger: Fade out in 6 months.
High Tradition, High Resilience
(e.g., Automated Kopi Chain)
Goal: Sweet Spot.
High Tradition, Low Resilience
(e.g., Old School Hawker)
Risk: Extinction.
Low Trend, High Resilience
(e.g., Food Court Chain)
Risk: Commoditization.
2. The Diner Archetype Selector A quick interface to help your team visualize who you are actually building for.
Select Your Target Diner:
3. Rent vs. Relevance Calculator A conceptual input/output tool to reality-check your expansion plans against SingStat data.
If you are ready to uncover what your customers are really thinking, let us have a conversation about designing a better focus group. If you are keen to know more, here is how we do it. You can also write to our Research Lead, Felicia at felicia@assembled.sg or give us a call at +65 8118 1048.
